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2 posts tagged with "Strategy"

Strategic thinking for life, business, and technology

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Truths

· 3 min read
Allan B. Pedin IV
Allan B. Pedin IV
CEO & Co-Founder | AI & Blockchain Researcher

Here's the truth: we need to be more specific when we talk about what is true.

There are many types of truths, and not all of them deserve the same level of confidence.

If we want to move truth closer to objective, we need to separate the levels:

  • Perceived truth: what feels true.
  • Statistical truth: what the numbers suggest.
  • Logical truth: what must be true.

Level 1: Perceived Truth

Definition: A perceived truth is something a person believes to be true because of what they have seen, lived, felt, or absorbed from the world around them.

It may come from direct experience. It may come from culture. It may come from a group of people repeating the same belief until it feels obvious.

My story: When I first started building my company, I believed blockchain gaming was one of the right places to build.

That belief did not come from nowhere.

Capital was moving into the space. Smart people were talking about it. Founders were building. Investors were making the category feel inevitable.

At the time, "blockchain gaming is the future" was not just my perceived truth. It was a social truth held by a significant number of people around me.

But consensus isn't always correct.

Level 2: Statistical Truth

Definition: A statistical truth is what happens when we move beyond what feels true and ask what the numbers say.

Only about 0.07% of startups reach an IPO or significant acquisition within six years. Among startups that reach venture backing, that jumps to about 25%.

Use: Statistical truth is useful for navigating uncertainty.

It does not make the future certain. It does not prove that one path causes the outcome. It shows the shape of reality across a population.

The same ambition can look impossible in the set of all startups and much more possible in the set of venture-backed startups. That does not mean the ambition changed. It means the set changed.

That is why statistical truth is stronger than perceived truth.

Perceived truth says, "This feels like the future."

Statistical truth asks, "How often does that kind of future actually arrive?"

Level 3: Logical Truth

Definition: A logical truth is different.

It is not based on what I experienced, or what usually happens. It is based on what must be true once the assumptions are accepted.

Set theory: Take the set of 27,976,477 startups.

Then take the much smaller set of 13,406 startups that reached an IPO or meaningful acquisition within six years.

For each startup, consider the set of decisions made throughout its journey: what to build, who to hire, when to raise, when to pivot, when to keep going, and when to stop.

Question: What can we know with 100% certainty about the set of decisions made by the startups that reached a meaningful outcome?

Answer: The set does not contain the terminal decision to quit before reaching it.

That is the only logical difference between the startup that wins and the startup that loses.

Every other truth is secondary.

TAP Is the Strategy for Winning In the Game of Business

· 8 min read
Allan B. Pedin IV
Allan B. Pedin IV
CEO & Co-Founder | AI & Blockchain Researcher

Life and business are non-zero-sum, repeated, incomplete-information, asymmetric, multiplayer games.

That is the board.

Most people play as if the game is smaller than it is. They optimize for the visible round, the immediate transaction, the next meeting, the next raise, the next sale, the next status move. They mistake local advantage for strategy.

But local advantage is not enough in a repeated game. The move that wins today can make tomorrow harder. The signal that gets attention can make trust more expensive. The clever angle can close the door that would have become the better game.

TAP is the strategy for winning repeated games.

Transparency makes you legible. Authenticity makes you credible. Perspicacity makes you useful.

Together, they make you partnerable.

This is the same TAP framework I use to describe CipherPlay's operating values, but the principle is larger than one company. It is a strategy for life and business wherever repeated partnership matters.

Name the Game

A non-zero-sum game is not a contest where one player's gain must equal another player's loss. The best games create mutual upside. In life and business, the strongest outcomes usually come from coordination: customers getting real value, companies creating profit, investors backing durable growth, communities becoming stronger, and collaborators building things they could not build alone.

A repeated game means the current move changes future rounds. Reputation compounds. Trust compounds. Distrust compounds too. Every promise, delivery, introduction, explanation, and silence becomes part of the next player's decision about whether to keep playing with you.

An incomplete-information game means nobody has the whole board. Every actor is making decisions with partial knowledge. You do not know every constraint, every incentive, every risk, every internal conversation, or every future opportunity. This is not a flaw in the game. This is the game.

An asymmetric game means different players have different resources, constraints, timing, networks, strengths, and vantage points. A startup, an investor, a nonprofit, a government agency, a researcher, and a customer are not playing from the same position. Their power, information, speed, and objectives are different.

A multiplayer game means outcomes emerge through relationships. It is not enough to be smart in isolation. Coalitions matter. Referrals matter. Distribution matters. Reputation matters. Who trusts you enough to share information, take a risk, make an introduction, or build alongside you matters.

If that is the game, then the winning strategy is not short-term gamesmanship. It is becoming the kind of player the right people choose again.

Winning Depends on the Objective Function

Winning is objective-function-relative.

A for-profit company may optimize for making money. A nonprofit may optimize for helping a community. A government may optimize for staying in office. An individual may optimize for freedom, wealth, impact, reputation, meaning, or some private combination of all of them.

Different actors have different objective functions. That does not make the game incoherent. It makes partnership necessary.

Because the game is non-zero-sum, there are arrangements where different objective functions can advance together. Because the game is repeated, the quality of the relationship affects the cost of future coordination. Because the game is incomplete-information, information flow matters. Because the game is asymmetric, one player's weakness may be another player's strength. Because the game is multiplayer, no serious objective stays isolated for long.

The more ambitious the objective, the more partnership matters.

If you want to build something meaningful, you need people who will keep taking the next round with you. Investors need enough trust to allocate capital. Customers need enough trust to adopt. Collaborators need enough trust to build. Communities need enough trust to engage. Potential partners need enough trust to share what they know.

This is why being partnerable matters.

To be partnerable is to be legible, credible, and useful across repeated games. It means potential partners can understand what you are doing, believe that your signals match your actions, and see that your judgment helps them navigate the board.

TAP is how you become partnerable.

The False Strategy

The false strategy is short-term gamesmanship.

Short-term gamesmanship optimizes for isolated wins. It hides information when clarity would build trust. It performs a persona instead of revealing a position. It uses selective truth to create temporary leverage. It treats opacity as sophistication and cleverness as strength.

This can work for a round.

It can win attention. It can win a meeting. It can win a negotiation. It can even win a deal.

But repeated games punish strategies that make future coordination harder.

If people cannot understand what you are doing, they hesitate. If your words do not match your actions, they discount your signals. If you cannot turn information into judgment, they stop looking to you for insight. Each failure increases friction in the next round.

Short-term gamesmanship misunderstands the time horizon. It tries to win the move while losing the game.

TAP plays the actual game.

Transparency Makes You Legible

Transparency is not radical exposure. It is strategic legibility.

In an incomplete-information game, useful information lowers coordination costs. Potential partners need to know what you are building, what you believe, what you see, what you need, what you can offer, and where the uncertainty is.

Transparency helps people locate you on the board.

It does not mean sharing everything with everyone. It means refusing to make confusion part of the strategy. It means explaining the market you are studying, the problem you are solving, the trade-offs you are making, and the reasons behind your moves.

This is why I value transparency in public research, product decisions, and partner conversations. It moves the relationship closer to a better information environment. It gives serious people enough signal to decide whether we should play a bigger game together.

In repeated games, legibility compounds.

Authenticity Makes You Credible

Authenticity is not self-expression for its own sake. It is signal integrity.

In a repeated game, your words become predictions about your future behavior. If your stated values, public claims, private conversations, and shipped work diverge, your signals get discounted. People may still listen, but they will price in the gap.

Authenticity closes that gap.

It means the move matches the message. It means the public thesis is connected to the private operating system. It means you do not need a different version of the story for every room.

That does not make you universally agreeable. It makes you easier to evaluate. Potential partners can tell what game you are playing, what you are optimizing for, and whether your commitments are likely to survive pressure.

In repeated games, credibility compounds.

Perspicacity Makes You Useful

Perspicacity is clear judgment in noisy environments.

The game is incomplete-information, but it is not information-scarce. Most markets have more data, commentary, tools, signals, dashboards, opinions, and narratives than any actor can fully process. The scarce resource is not information. The scarce resource is useful interpretation.

Perspicacity is the ability to see through noise, synthesize what matters, and identify strong next moves.

This is where strategy becomes more than posture. Transparency and authenticity make you easier to trust. Perspicacity makes that trust valuable.

Potential partners do not only need someone honest. They need someone who can help them understand the board. They need judgment about markets, technology, incentives, timing, and risk. They need someone who can turn abundant information into actionable insight.

In repeated games, usefulness compounds.

TAP Is Values as Strategy

TAP is not naive niceness.

It is not a request for the game to be fair. It is not a refusal to compete. It is not an aesthetic preference for moral language.

TAP is values as strategy.

The ethical move and the optimal move often converge in repeated games because trust changes the payoff structure. A transparent move can make future coordination cheaper. An authentic move can make future signals stronger. A perspicacious move can make future partnerships more productive.

This does not guarantee that every round rewards you. Some people will exploit openness. Some rooms will reward performance over substance. Some players will optimize for extraction and call it strategy.

But the goal is not to be chosen by every player.

The goal is to become partnerable to the right players.

Winning the long game means building the trust, judgment, access, and optionality needed to accomplish your objective function with better partners over more rounds.

Life and business are non-zero-sum, repeated, incomplete-information, asymmetric, multiplayer games.

TAP is the strategy for winning them.