Truths
Here's the truth: we need to be more specific when we talk about what is true.
There are many types of truths, and not all of them deserve the same level of confidence.
If we want to move truth closer to objective, we need to separate the levels:
- Perceived truth: what feels true.
- Statistical truth: what the numbers suggest.
- Logical truth: what must be true.
Level 1: Perceived Truth
Definition: A perceived truth is something a person believes to be true because of what they have seen, lived, felt, or absorbed from the world around them.
It may come from direct experience. It may come from culture. It may come from a group of people repeating the same belief until it feels obvious.
My story: When I first started building my company, I believed blockchain gaming was one of the right places to build.
That belief did not come from nowhere.
Capital was moving into the space. Smart people were talking about it. Founders were building. Investors were making the category feel inevitable.
At the time, "blockchain gaming is the future" was not just my perceived truth. It was a social truth held by a significant number of people around me.
But consensus isn't always correct.
Level 2: Statistical Truth
Definition: A statistical truth is what happens when we move beyond what feels true and ask what the numbers say.
Only about 0.07% of startups reach an IPO or significant acquisition within six years. Among startups that reach venture backing, that jumps to about 25%.
Use: Statistical truth is useful for navigating uncertainty.
It does not make the future certain. It does not prove that one path causes the outcome. It shows the shape of reality across a population.
The same ambition can look impossible in the set of all startups and much more possible in the set of venture-backed startups. That does not mean the ambition changed. It means the set changed.
That is why statistical truth is stronger than perceived truth.
Perceived truth says, "This feels like the future."
Statistical truth asks, "How often does that kind of future actually arrive?"
Level 3: Logical Truth
Definition: A logical truth is different.
It is not based on what I experienced, or what usually happens. It is based on what must be true once the assumptions are accepted.
Set theory: Take the set of 27,976,477 startups.
Then take the much smaller set of 13,406 startups that reached an IPO or meaningful acquisition within six years.
For each startup, consider the set of decisions made throughout its journey: what to build, who to hire, when to raise, when to pivot, when to keep going, and when to stop.
Question: What can we know with 100% certainty about the set of decisions made by the startups that reached a meaningful outcome?
Answer: The set does not contain the terminal decision to quit before reaching it.
That is the only logical difference between the startup that wins and the startup that loses.
Every other truth is secondary.